Silicon Valley housing prices and the emotional stages they’ll put you through

Stages of Silicon Valley real estate sticker shockIt’s no surprise that housing prices in and around Silicon Valley are extremely high. So when moving to or purchasing a home in the area, know that getting over Silicon Valley real estate sticker shock happens in stages.

The 5 Stages of Housing Sticker Shock

First there is disbelief or denial.  “It cannot be that bad – people are exaggerating.”  That’s followed quickly by “I thought it was bad where I used to live!”

Then there may be outrage (anger is too mild a word): “Why would anyone pay that to live there?”

Next, a little bargaining: “What’s the work around? Are there any bank owned homes?  How about something older – I don’t mind a 15 year old house…” (To us, that’s a young house, by the way.) “What about buying a lot and building?”  Or the commute negotiation “I thought I had to be within 15 minutes, but I could go 30.”  A typical commute might be 30 minutes in the morning, but 45 in the evening.  Many people have worse than typical, though, as they want a bigger, nicer home, better schools, quieter location, etc.

Depression soon follows suit. This may be accompanied by “We just cannot do it” or “We are not willing to do that” (until they see that rents are $4000 for a smallish house in an only OK area and $6000 per month for a decent sized home in a good area.)

Acceptance comes at last. Either you can and will buy locally, or you won’t. For some, coming to terms with our local market costs means they’re ready to go all in, bite the bullet, and buy locally. That may mean spending more or getting less than what you would like. It may lead others to move out of the immediate area and embrace an hour-long commute, or to take the Apple or Google bus to work, if applicable. Or perhaps they choose to rent indefinitely (although this can also appear in the other stages).

Alternatively, it could lead some people to move to Seattle, Orange County or somewhere a little less overwhelming in terms of housing costs where they can buy the home they want.

Burning Money While Housing Prices RiseMoving Through the Stages – Acceptance of Housing Prices

Progressing through the stages is often not a straight line.

Sometimes people think they are at “acceptance” as they write offers which are habitually 5-15% too low.  In reality, they are actually still somewhere between the “denial” and “bargaining” phases, either refusing to believe the market data or hoping for a good deal amidst our raging seller’s market. That “good deal” doesn’t usually happen. Writing multiple unsuccessful offers frequently leads to depression, and sometimes even blaming their agent for their offers not going through (outrage), even when it’s clear at closing that their offer price or terms were the issue, and they were recieving good guidance from their agent that was disregarded (denial).

So how fast can you expect to get to the acceptance stage and write a realistic purchase offer? Honestly, everyone will go at a different pace, but the sooner the better. For people who could have bought 12 months ago but are still shopping now, that wait has cost them about +10% of their home price in many cases, possibly more. For those who have been looking 3 years, it’s more than double that. At that point, it’s like setting a match to your entire down payment.

If you want to be a successful home buyer in this crazy Silicon Valley real estate market, you will need to get onboard quickly, because the longer you take to get to acceptance, the more expensive your final home will cost when the market is appreciating, as it has been for about 3 years now.  Time is money and nowhere is that more true than in the San Jose, Silicon Valley, or South Bay real estate market.

 

 

Looking for more Silicon Valley real estate resources?  Here are a few of my other sites, blogs, and market stats tooks:

popehandy.rereport.com – real estate statics for San Mateo County, Santa Clara County, and Santa Cruz County

popehandy.com – Silicon Valley real estate, Los Gatos real estate, info on many areas of the realty market in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties

SanJoseRealEstateLosGatosHomes.com – Santa Clara County real estate, special focus on San Jose areas of Almaden & Cambrian and also Los Gatos with info on the real estate market, neighborhoods, and more

LiveInLosGatosBlog – Los Gatos real estate, neighborhoods, events, businesses, parks. Many photos and neighborhood or subdivision profiles.

 

 

 

 

 

2019 Predictions for the Silicon Valley Real Estate Market

Search House Magnifiing Glass - 2019 predictions for the real estate marketThis morning I read a comprehensive article assessing the real estate market in California and several key markets within it. Normally I do not publish a post here suggesting that people read analysis elsewhere, but this is an exception, as it includes 2019 predictions that most home owners or home buyers would find of interest.

Some of the 2019 predictions are along the lines of my own thinking, including that we have to see what happens in February to understand the market’s direction, and that it seems that it will continue to be an appreciating market in 2019 (if milder, per many economists).  Also the falling prices have spooked home buyers, so rather than rushing at the 20% off sale, some are waiting for prices to be cut by 65% (I wouldn’t hold my breath) or some other extreme number.

From MangageCasa.com:
California Housing Market Report and Predictions 2018 2019

 

If you’d like to check out the real estate market data in Santa Clara County and other Silicon Valley communities, please visit my main blog site, ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com/blog or SanJoseRealEstateLosGatosHomes.com (the first link forwards to the second).

 

Other reading of interest:

Urban Living Neighborhoods in Silicon Valley and San Jose

Silicon Valley’s Apartment Rental Market

The shock of Silicon Valley housing costs: how little you can buy on a huge income

 

 

 

How’s the Silicon Valley real estate market?

Aerial vew over San Jose looking east - photo by Mary Pope-Handy

Aerial vew over San Jose looking east – photo by Mary Pope-Handy

What’s going on with the Silicon Valley real estate market? Is it as crazy as ever with multiple offers, overbids, and few or no contingencies?  Today we’ll consider the regional view, aka The Big Picture, to provide a sense of what is going on. For info on smaller areas or districts, please head over to my main blog, the Valley Of Heart’s Delight Blog – SanJoseRealEstateLosGatosHomes.com. There cities, towns, and districts are looked at in depth.

Seasonal Patterns in Silicon Valley

The quietest time (number of sales, traffic, etc.) and lowest prices in the real estate market tend to fall in January, or sometimes in December.  As with most years, this time around January had the lowest prices.

Most years, we see strong buyer activity with multiple offers early in the year – often emerging as a pattern by the middle of February.

Right now, some home sellers have not accepted that home prices have dropped 20% or so since the peak last spring (more or less depending on location, pricing tier, school districts, property condition, and so on). Those properties are not moving quickly.

For sellers who understand the current market conditions and have priced appropriately, home buyers are flocking and multiple offers are back – in force.

In short, there’s a kind of duality right now, so it’s a weird time. Homes that were sitting on the market but get a price reduction may linger awhile, and then sell with multiple offers. This catches buyers and their Realtors off guard.

To provide regional Silicon Valley market conditions, today I’ll post info on  the three counties (San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz).

In terms of expense, San Mateo is the most costly of these 3, and overall it becomes less expensive in Santa Clara County, then less expensive still in Santa Cruz County.  Alameda County has a little of Silicon Valley, but that area is in a  different MLS system so is not part of this analysis.

Next, a look at sale prices an market conditions for single family homes and condominiums / townhomes by county.

What does it cost to buy a house or condo in Silicon Valley?

In Santa Clara County (home to Palo Alto, Cupertino, Sunnyvale, Mountain View, San Jose, and my own Los Gatos), the average sale price is $1,413,000 and the median sale price $1,185,000 – quite a bit lower than last spring.

Santa Clara County
http://rereport.com/scc/print/Mary.PopeHandySCC.pdf

Please click to enlarge:

Santa Clara County trends at a glance

 

For condominiums and townhouses, of course, it is a more affordable.

Santa Clara County condo trends at a glance

 

In San Mateo County (home to Redwood Shores, Foster City, Menlo Park, San Mateo), the average sale price is about $1.78 million for houses recently sold.  The median is a little lower at $1.425 million. (more…)

Silicon Valley neighborhoods

This website, Move2SiliconValley.com, provides an overview for people thinking of or planning to move to Silicon Valley. If you want to dig deeper and learn about individual Silicon Valley neighborhoods, I want to suggest that you visit some of my other websites and blogs for Silicon Valley real estate resources.  Please have a look:

popehandy.com is my flagship site for Silicon Valley real estate – it includes area or neighborhood profiles for all the Silicon Valley communities (in all 4 counties) as well as information for Silicon Valley home sellers and more. Visit popehandy.com and click on “Communities” for a drop down menu listing the 4 counties and learn about the cities, towns, and areas that comprise the Silicon Valley area. (I run several sites and have many articles on them, and this is the one which covers the broadest territory.)
popehandy.com Silicon Valley neighborhoods

ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com is where I showcase my listings, and it’s the site for general real estate info in Santa Clara County and Santa Clara Valley, once known as the Valley Of Heart’s Delight. Most of Silicon Valley is in this area.

SanJoseRealEstateLosGatosHomes.com covers real estate in the town of Los Gatos and the nearby areas of San Jose, Campbell, Saratoga and more. I think it’s the best part of the Santa Clara Valley or Santa Clara County, but perhaps I’m biased. There are MANY posts with local market trends & statistics, updated monthly, for these areas plus Cupertino, Sunnyvale, Mountain View, Almaden Valley, Blossom Valley, Willow Glen, and so on – areas within Santa Clara County. (Google “real estate market” plus the city or area you’re interested in, and you likely will find an article on this site for your desired corner of the region.) Additionally, there are special research postings on the absorption rate in Los Gatos and Saratoga. Also you’ll find Silicon Valley neighborhoods described in depth, often at the subdivision level for areas such as Cambrian and Almaden. Check it out, it is a wealth of information!

For example, here’s an article on the Happy Valley neighborhood, also known as the Country Lane neighborhood:
Happy Valley neighborhood, Country Lane neighborhood – west San Jose

LiveInLosGatosBlog.com focuses on the town of Los Gatos, its neighborhoods, areas, districts, as well as events, parks, real estate for sale, the arts, schools, businesses, restaurants, and much more.  A little more community and a little less real estate, but the BEST site for Los Gatos neighborhoods you’ll find anywhere. Los Gatos was once known as the “gem city” and is still a very beloved corner of Silicon Valley today, with historic neighborhoods and homes, gorgeous architecture, and a vibrant downtown. Before deciding where to live, be sure to investigate this scenic town snuggled at the base of the Santa Cruz Mountains – the gateway to the valley.

popehandy.ReReport.com is all about the statistics for Silicon Valley, including San Mateo County, Santa Clara County, and Santa Cruz County. Overall, it is very comprehensive. It features a way for you to track listings and sales near your own home, or one of interest, too.

Silicon Valley neighborhoods where I focus my real estate sales:

Obviously, 4 counties is a lot of ground to cover, and most Realtors don’t work that huge of an area in urban communities like ours. I have sold in all 4 counties, but the vast majority of my business is in Santa Clara County, where I live and where my office is located.

In general, I avoid taking on buyers in counties outside of Santa Clara County as it’s far with today’s traffic and with buyer clients it’s important to be super responsive and see new listings as soon as they are available. For that reason, I’d be happy to introduce you to a great buyer’s agent in those areas if that’s where you’d like to purchase a home. With listings it’s far fewer trips and I have more control of my time, so I’m happy to assist sellers in all of these counties.

San Francisco and Silicon Valley unemployment rates

The San Francisco and Silicon Valley unemployment rates are a huge driver of the SF Bay Area’s housing market. Today I saw real estate market info from the California Association of Realtor’s chief economist, Leslie Appleton-Young. One of her slides makes plain why the Silicon Valley real estate market is so crazy: our unemployment rate is extremely low, behind only San Francisco (where trying to buy a home is even worse than on the Peninsula or South Bay). Have a look at the data by California metro area:

San Francisco and Silicon Valley unemployment rates

San Francisco & Silicon Valley unemployment rates plus all of California

San Francisco and Silicon Valley unemployment rates plus all of California by metro area

As you can see, San Francisco has a screaming hot jobs market with only 3.4% unemployment. The San Jose metro area is only slightly cooler at 4.1%. (Unfortunately there are no “Cliff Notes” to tell where the San Francisco Metro Area ends and where the San Jose Metro Area begins – so I cannot tell if San Mateo County is lumped in with Santa Clara County to the south or San Francisco County and City to the north.)

With all this hiring going on, it’s no wonder that a frequent topic of conversation is Silicon Valley traffic patterns and congestion.  A few years ago, the rush hour traffic in the morning went from about 6:30 or 7am to 9am, and the evening commute times were about 4 to 7pm.  Today both are extended.  I find that Highway 85 in the “west valley” areas along Los Gatos, Saratoga, and Cupertino tends to still be pretty thick with cars even at 10am.  The return trip from Palo Alto (where I have some doctors at Stanford Hospital) can be sluggish as early as 3pm.

Worsening traffic from low Silicon Valley unemployment rates means that Silicon Valley real estate is even more expensive than usual for close-in locations.   Many San Jose area commuters spend an hour driving into work in the morning and 75 or 90 minutes driving home in the evening (for reasons I don’t understand, the evening commute is quite a bit worse than the morning one).   That translates to home prices being much, much more expensive than you’d expect in places like Mountain View, Sunnyvale and Santa Clara.   For a better quality of life, Silicon Valley employees will often pay dearly to get that shorter commute. If they can get the smaller commute and great public schools, the communities are the most expensive places to live, as is the case in Palo Alto, Los Altos and Los Altos Hills in particular.

Find Silicon Valley real estate and homes for sale in “close in” locations below

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