2018-11-25 Av DOM and SP to LP RatioIt is not at all unusual for the housing market to go flat or even decline a little in the second half of the year. In October, the local Silicon Valley real estate market got an uptick as prices rose from the month before, homes sold a little faster, and basically things inched back into the seller’s favor. Sometimes homes that sell between Labor Day and Halloween seem to be in a second spring of sorts. In November so far, though, the Silicon Valley real estate market softens again – slightly. It’s all slightly more depressed than in October: prices are a little lower, days on market a little longer, etc. It is still a seller’s market, but not nearly to the degree it was in spring.

In other words, it’s a good time to buy (at least compared to 6 months ago).

Home buyers are funny, as a rule. They tend to buy when it’s a frenzy and prices are skyrocketing and multiple offers are in the crazy zone with buyers going in without any contingencies. Once the foot comes off the gas and they can buy with some rights to contingencies and can purchase closer to list price, many buyers freak out and won’t buy at all. It’s like the market has to be against them if they are at all interested.

Let’s look at the numbers for Santa Clara County. I pulled these tonight from MLS Listings and the data reflects single family homes in Santa Clara County. (Remember, closed sales were usually ratified about 30 days prior.)

First – inventory – I think it’s very important to not just view the month-over-month changes, but the year over year. How does it usually look for this month in the past? 2017 was a weird year, so going back a little further in time provides helpful perspective.

Inventory - 2108-11-25 Number of Active Listings


How long are homes taking to sell? It is more than 2017, but not unusual compared to 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.

2018-11-25 Days to Sell Average


Price per square foot – year over year, it’s a steady upward progression.

2018-11-25 Santa Clara County Price Per SF Ratio for SFH


And lastly, sale price to list price ratio – here, we do see that it is softer than prior years.

2018-11-25 Sale Price to List Price ratio


What to make of all of this? The market is softening, but most indicators are still fairly robust. We are overdue on a correction in the housing market, but I don’t see it coming right away. The thing to watch for will be what happens in Feb – April 2019. The market could surge upward again, it could rise gently, be flat, or fall.

The real question is whether the Silicon Valley real estate softening will continue into the new year or not. If it continues, hesitant buyers will be glad they waited. If not, they will want to kick themselves for a missed opportunity.

It’s hard to know the future, but right now, conditions are the best for buyers I’ve seen in a long time. Prices are lower than spring, and home buyers are able to purchase with contingencies in many cases.