This morning I read a comprehensive article assessing the real estate market in California and several key markets within it. Normally I do not publish a post here suggesting that people read analysis elsewhere, but this is an exception, as it includes 2019 predictions that most home owners or home buyers would find of interest.
Some of the 2019 predictions are along the lines of my own thinking, including that we have to see what happens in February to understand the market’s direction, and that it seems that it will continue to be an appreciating market in 2019 (if milder, per many economists). Also the falling prices have spooked home buyers, so rather than rushing at the 20% off sale, some are waiting for prices to be cut by 65% (I wouldn’t hold my breath) or some other extreme number.
California Housing Market Report and Predictions 2018 2019
If you’d like to check out the real estate market data in Santa Clara County and other Silicon Valley communities, please visit my main blog site, ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com/blog or SanJoseRealEstateLosGatosHomes.com (the first link forwards to the second).
Other reading of interest:
What’s going on with the Silicon Valley real estate market? Is it as crazy as ever with multiple offers, overbids, and few or no contingencies? Today we’ll consider the regional view, aka The Big Picture, to provide a sense of what is going on. For info on smaller areas or districts, please head over to my main blog, the Valley Of Heart’s Delight Blog – SanJoseRealEstateLosGatosHomes.com. There cities, towns, and districts are looked at in depth.
Seasonal Patterns in Silicon Valley
The quietest time (number of sales, traffic, etc.) and lowest prices in the real estate market tend to fall in January, or sometimes in December. As with most years, this time around January had the lowest prices.
Most years, we see strong buyer activity with multiple offers early in the year – often emerging as a pattern by the middle of February.
Right now, some home sellers have not accepted that home prices have dropped 20% or so since the peak last spring (more or less depending on location, pricing tier, school districts, property condition, and so on). Those properties are not moving quickly.
For sellers who understand the current market conditions and have priced appropriately, home buyers are flocking and multiple offers are back – in force.
In short, there’s a kind of duality right now, so it’s a weird time. Homes that were sitting on the market but get a price reduction may linger awhile, and then sell with multiple offers. This catches buyers and their Realtors off guard.
To provide regional Silicon Valley market conditions, today I’ll post info on the three counties (San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz).
In terms of expense, San Mateo is the most costly of these 3, and overall it becomes less expensive in Santa Clara County, then less expensive still in Santa Cruz County. Alameda County has a little of Silicon Valley, but that area is in a different MLS system so is not part of this analysis.
Next, a look at sale prices an market conditions for single family homes and condominiums / townhomes by county.
What does it cost to buy a house or condo in Silicon Valley?
In Santa Clara County (home to Palo Alto, Cupertino, Sunnyvale, Mountain View, San Jose, and my own Los Gatos), the average sale price is $1,413,000 and the median sale price $1,185,000 – quite a bit lower than last spring.
Santa Clara County
Please click to enlarge:
For condominiums and townhouses, of course, it is a more affordable.
In San Mateo County (home to Redwood Shores, Foster City, Menlo Park, San Mateo), the average sale price is about $1.78 million for houses recently sold. The median is a little lower at $1.425 million. Continue reading
Here’s a 10 or 11 minute interview with Mike Simonsen, Altos Research CEO (whose charts and graphs are found on all my sites) on the 2019 real estate market.
When people relocating to Silicon Valley get “sticker shock” on our real estate prices, most of the time they look for more affordable places in which to live that are close by. Often finding neighborhoods with good schools comes into play. Or perhaps they simply love the scenic town of Los Gatos but can’t buy in town (95030 and 95032 zip codes are “in town” and 95033 is the unincorporated county areas with a Los Gatos mailing address). The mountains between San Jose and Santa Cruz – the coastal range – is home to a number of communities such as Chemeketa Park, Holy City, Aldercroft Heights, the Lexington Reservoir area (the town of Lexington is under the reservoir now!), Alma, Redwood Estates (Upper Redwood Estates, Lower Redwood Estates) and more.
The Los Gatos Mountains are a specialty area and I don’t usually work them. I frequently will refer them out or team up with someone else who knows a lot more than I do about the unique things you need to worry about if buying up there.
There are many plusses to living in the Los Gatos Mountains: clean air, more open space (less crowding), beautiful vistas, great schools (top rated public schools), lower housing costs. It’s a fabulous place if you have horses or just love more seclusion. The folks who live in the hills absolutely love their communities and homes.
At the same time, there are special consideration if you live in the Santa Cruz Mountains. Here’s a list of potential issues that mountain residents may face:
Many residential roads are private & there are private road agreements in place (so owners must agree on paving, clearing brush or trees too close to the road, pay if the road washes out in a mudslide to clear it or if soil beneath it gives way, etc.)
- Utilities: in the valley, we have Pacific Gas & Electric (PG & E) and public water (most of us have San Jose Water). In the mountains most or many of them have propane gas (not P G & E), they do have electric from PG & E though, and well water. Our recent drought – which ended officially this week – was not severe but with a worse drought the wells can run dry and then mountain residents have to truck water in, which is very expensive. You also must periodically check well water for arsenic and other elements and purity. (Also there’s septic instead of sewer. Not a big deal but it’s one more thing to maintain.)
- Fire concerns – the wildland areas are at risk of fire in summer, so the fire marshall’s regulations are to keep brush cleared a certain distance from your house to help lessen the risk. (Google “fire santa cruz mountains” and you will get a lot of news returns on fire danger and past fires).
- Winter weather issues – the higher elevations can get snow a couple of times a year – doesn’t last long but can make roads impassable (not as low as Chemeketa Park but near the summit and perhaps upper Redwood Estates). Trees sometimes fall and block roads and driveways during heavy rainfall. Our redwood trees have VERY shallow roots and I think this is why they come down in strong winds and rain, but I’m not sure. The lovely trees are green year round, including winter. They can keep the sun away if you’re in a heavily forrested area, though. I had friends who lived near the summit and they said that in winter, sunshine never touched their property. Finally, with all the trees and more severe winter weather in the Mtns, residents there lose electricity more often than we do in the valley (due to trees falling I am sure).
- Beach traffic – the mountain communities are all pretty dependent on Hwy 17 (there are few alternatives) and there’s a wave of traffic tie ups as coast visitors come and go with the warm weather.
- San Andreas Earthquake Fault – runs pretty much down the spine of the coastal range (on or close to Summit Road). The summit is the “sunniest” area in the mountains, so if I lived there I’d want to be where there’s more sunlight – but that would mean straddling one of the most powerful and most scary earthquake faults on the globe. I won’t do it!
- Travel time – hwy 17 can be pretty smooth but once off the road, it can be 10 to 20 or more minutes until you get to the house, so the total travel time to whereever you’re going can be long. That’s especially true if there’s an accident on 17, which is not so uncommon with all the curves in the road. There is a large grocery store on Summit Road so it is not necessary to drive to the valley for the basics.
- Resale issues – even in a “hot” market, it takes far longer to sell a mountain home than one on the valley floor. Agents in my office say that on a typical open house up there they get one or two people per hour. It is not uncommon for a mountain house to take a year to sell. I just checked the average Days on Market and it’s 63. In todays hot sellers market, that’s significantly longer than in the valley but far less than when I last updated this post in March 2011 when the Days on Market were 212.
- Bugs – in addition to drywood termites and subterranean termites, up in the SC Mountains they also have dampwood termites.
If you’re interested in learning more about the mountains, please email me! I can get you more info and partner with a “mountain agent” to get you the best deal on a property in the coastal range near the San Jose area.
Finally, if you are not sure which area is in Los Gatos vs having a Los Gatos mailing address (which can also happen in pockets on the valley floor), the best resource is the map of the town’s boundaries, which you can find here: http://www.losgatosca.gov/DocumentCenter/View/338
What’s available in the mountains today?
Here’s what’s listed in the Los Gatos Mountain area today.
How’s the market in 95033 this week?
It is not at all unusual for the housing market to go flat or even decline a little in the second half of the year. In October, the local Silicon Valley real estate market got an uptick as prices rose from the month before, homes sold a little faster, and basically things inched back into the seller’s favor. Sometimes homes that sell between Labor Day and Halloween seem to be in a second spring of sorts. In November so far, though, the Silicon Valley real estate market softens again – slightly. It’s all slightly more depressed than in October: prices are a little lower, days on market a little longer, etc. It is still a seller’s market, but not nearly to the degree it was in spring.
In other words, it’s a good time to buy (at least compared to 6 months ago).
Home buyers are funny, as a rule. They tend to buy when it’s a frenzy and prices are skyrocketing and multiple offers are in the crazy zone with buyers going in without any contingencies. Once the foot comes off the gas and they can buy with some rights to contingencies and can purchase closer to list price, many buyers freak out and won’t buy at all. It’s like the market has to be against them if they are at all interested.
Let’s look at the numbers for Santa Clara County. I pulled these tonight from MLS Listings and the data reflects single family homes in Santa Clara County. (Remember, closed sales were usually ratified about 30 days prior.)
First – inventory – I think it’s very important to not just view the month-over-month changes, but the year over year. How does it usually look for this month in the past? 2017 was a weird year, so going back a little further in time provides helpful perspective.
How long are homes taking to sell? It is more than 2017, but not unusual compared to 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.
Price per square foot – year over year, it’s a steady upward progression.
And lastly, sale price to list price ratio – here, we do see that it is softer than prior years.
What to make of all of this? The market is softening, but most indicators are still fairly robust. We are overdue on a correction in the housing market, but I don’t see it coming right away. The thing to watch for will be what happens in Feb – April 2019. The market could surge upward again, it could rise gently, be flat, or fall.
The real question is whether the Silicon Valley real estate softening will continue into the new year or not. If it continues, hesitant buyers will be glad they waited. If not, they will want to kick themselves for a missed opportunity.
It’s hard to know the future, but right now, conditions are the best for buyers I’ve seen in a long time. Prices are lower than spring, and home buyers are able to purchase with contingencies in many cases.
The Silicon Valley market recently seemed to be on the skids from late spring through summer. The question was whether the decline in average and median sales prices was “seasonally normal” or if it was the beginning of a correction. Depending on which way you look at the data (or which data you used), you might come up with a different conclusion. What I did not expect at this point was an uptick in the market.
Today I did a quick study of pricing in Santa Clara County and San Mateo County. To my surprise, it appears that the closed sale prices so far in October are noticeably higher than in August – perhaps the sliding prices are sliding no more? Do we have an uptick in the market? We’ll have to watch and see. There are obviously very few sales so early in the month, but no matter which angle I tried, I did keep getting the same result: higher median and average sale prices in Santa Clara County and San Mateo County for single family homes. It was also strong for the condo / townhome market in Santa Clara County, but there’s a little dip for San Mateo County so far this month.
Here are some charts that I created from MLSListings, using the stats tools, today.
First, Santa Clara County single family homes, average sale price and median sale price. The uptick in sale prices is clear.
Next, the same criteria, but for San Mateo County, which also shows rising average and median sale prices :
What about the condo and townhouse market? Here’s the same criteria but for condominiums and townhomes in Santa Clara County. Once again, the numbers are up – rather than deepening the trend of downward pricing pressure.
San Mateo Condo and Townhouse market:
Whether you’re a long-term renter, temporary renter looking for a furnished rental, or a landlord, you’re probably wondering how the Silicon Valley’s apartment rental market is today and where it’s heading. Most real estate agents in this area do not deal with rentals, so rental housing is not typically something we track super closely. That being said, the same things that affect the residential resale market frequently effect the apartment rental market as well. So, without the help from my usual sources, such as the MLS (Multiple Listing Services), let’s look at what people are saying about the current trends.
Silicon Valley’s cooling apartment rental market
There are a few good sources for rental home information. One of them is RentCafe, which provides info on many cities and towns in Santa Clara County. The RentCafe page on Mountain View, for instance, provided the average apartment rental for all apartments, for studios, 1 bedrooms, 2 bedrooms, and 3 bedrooms. The overall averages seem to be somewhere between the 1 and 2 bedroom price points. It also shared today’s softened prices relative to last year’s. (I find this curious since buying a home is now more expensive than a year ago.)
RentCafe has similar info for a few cities nearby. You can find Santa Clara here, but change the last part of the URL to get a different city:
Another excellent source of information is Apartment List.
Apartment List does not analyze every city and town, nor do they study the difference between neighborhoods, such as comparing South San Jose with Willow Glen, but where they do give insight helps to show the major trends happening around the bay area. Check out Apartment List for more detailed analysis, and the most up-to-date information on the market. Also check out their Rentonomics page with more articles on renting.
Is there a solution to the lack of low-cost apartment rentals?
Analysts all believe there will be some market turnaround in the not too far future, but there are a few answers to where it may come from. CNBC published an article on the housing shortage dealing with high tech companies. Large industry leaders such as Google, Facebook, and Twitter continue to hire, bringing people into the area more quickly than developers are building, and forcing up the prices in both housing and rental markets. Employees have asked these companies to help, and some are responding. Google and Facebook have both come up with plans to construct affordable housing.
For years, California law has stated that a certain amount of affordable housing must be available in each community. Unfortunately, many communities are ignoring both the law and the need for such developments. If every community were to develop what the law required, the market would be much more balanced. Yet again, it’s the investors that are controlling the development, and it will not likely happen soon.
Below, please find a simple chart which provides a pretty good sense of what homes actually cost – not what they are listed for, but where they sell, here in the Valley of Heart’s Delight.
Often when people relocate to the San Jose area, they are interested in communities with good schools, like Cupertino, Saratoga, Los Altos, and Los Gatos. It can be a real shock to the system to find out that buying power isn’t what was hoped.
This data is courtesy of Sereno Group – thought it would be helpful to folks relocating here as a snapshot on the Silicon Valley real estate market Disclaimer: in many of these cities, there are different school districts within a city’s borders, and they are their own “markets”. Consider this as general information only.
Listed at $2,000,000 and sold with 4 offers for $2,300,000. Closed on August 14, 2018
Original post on this listing is below:
If you’ve been hunting for a move-in ready Cupertino home for sale with Monta Vista High School, this is your lucky week! Set in the beautiful Three Oaks neighborhood, close to Rainbow Drive and S Stelling Road, this sunny house was expanded in 2011 and more updates were done in 2018, including fully remodeling both bathrooms. The addition brought 600 SF of kitchen, family, and office space to the home – and they are exquisite!
The home at 1190 Crestline Drive, Cupertino CA 95014 features 3 bedrooms plus an office (which could be converted to a bedroom), 2 remodeled baths, a spacious living room, dining room, alcove off the dining room (originally the location of the “old” kitchen), a spacious kitchen – family room combination with a large, vaulted ceiling. There are recessed lights in the living, dining, kitchen, and family rooms. The kitchen-family room area offers 2 skylights with retractable shades. Both bathrooms and also the dining room provide sun tunnels. There’s loads of natural light!
Flexible floor plan and more options for another bed, bath, or?
The space which was the original kitchen is now an alcove, but it is possible to create another bedroom there – or use it as a study, music room, hobby room, or play area. It’s got a sewer line there, since it was previously a kitchen, so it may be possible to add a bathroom, too.
- 3 bedrooms + office and alcove
- Office has closet adjacent – could possibly convert office to bedroom
- 2 newly remodeled baths in 2018
- 1715 SF (per county)
- Lot size 6007 SF (per county)
- Built in 1963, expanded in 2011
- No carpeting – mostly hardwood floors, some laminate, some Italian porcelain tile
- Flexible layout—sewer plumbed to possibly add 3rd bathroom and another in original kitchen area
- Schools: Regnart Elementary, Kennedy Middle & Monta Vista High
MLS # ML81714661
OPEN HOUSE SCHEDULE:
Thurs., 7-19-2018 9:30am to 12:30pm (broker tour AND public open house)
Sat., 7-21-2018 2pm to 4pm
Sun., 7-22-2018 2pm to 4pm
You can learn more about this Cupertino home for sale and see all the photos on either of these two sites:
How is the Silicon Valley real estate market? It’s more of the same this month, with too-low levels of available inventory of homes for sale in Silicon Valley. At this point, the low inventory is a chronic problem for everyone. Inventory is up from the beginning of the year, but no where near “normal”, as you can see in the data below.
Home buyers in the county or on the Peninsula have little or nothing to purchase, and sellers feel trapped – they cannot sell their current home as there are bad odds that they would be able to purchase something else if they did sell. Unless they expect to leave the metro area, they are going to hold on tight in most cases.
Have a look at the inventory of houses on the market from 2001 (the earliest year I can pull from the MLS) to today in Santa Clara County – June is highlighted in a pale yellow to make it easy to find and compare the same month over the last 17 years.
The Silicon Valley real estate market – a look at inventory of available homes for sale:
The numbers really say it all. Even if you are new to the San Francisco Bay Area, you cannot help but notice the relative scarcity of homes for sale this month as opposed to last month or any other dating back to 2001. Therefore, it’s no surprise that solid homes here that are not in the luxury tier for their area (and are aggressively priced, beautifully staged, professionally photographed, and easy to view) are getting multiple offers, high overbids, and selling with no contingencies for inspection, loan, or appraisal. It’s more difficult, but not impossible, for anyone trying to purchase with less than 20% down in multiple offer situations. The key is to have extra money, beyond that 10%, for a potential appraisal deficit.
Here’s how the numbers look for various Silicon Valley communities. You can see all the info for them at popehandy.rereport.com or view the PDF newsletter by clicking the link or the image below.
How about the various parts of the county? The Silicon Valley real estate market varies from one area, price point, and school district to the next. The hottest of the hot markets are in the heart of the tech centers in prices under $2 million.
Sunnyvale has the highest sale price to list price average, with a staggering 116.1%, and Santa Clara is just behind at 113.9%. Only Monte Sereno is coming in at under 100% for the sale price to list price ratio (it is a very high end community). There are no “soft” markets in the bottom 50% of pricing anywhere.
Note that it’s very similar to the South Bay in that most communities have average sale price to list price ratios of over 100%, and the super high end areas like Woodside, Portola Valley, and Hillsborough are seeing milder SP to LP ratios than the more moderately priced cities such as Daly City (120.6%), San Bruno (117.7%), or Belmont (116.2%). These areas are not, generally speaking, luxury markets – so there is much more competition.
As is the normal pattern, San Mateo County is the most expensive of these three, followed by Santa Clara County, and then Santa Cruz County. Living by the coast is a dream for many, and with slightly softer prices and competition, this can be a fantastic retirement option for Silicon Valley homeowners looking to downsize.
In Santa Cruz County, like SMC and SCC, affordability is fueling the hottest market activity. Boulder Creek, known for its abundance of redwoods and rainfall, gleaned the most intense overbids in that county at 104.9% sale price to list price ratio and an average sale price of $570,000 – an absolute bargain relative to nearby areas “over the hill”.
Got a luxury budget? You are in luck!
Home buyers looking to purchase over $3 million (at least in most areas) will find it a good market for them to purchase. Selling under $2 or $2.5 million – again, in most areas – is fantastic for most properties. Who’s got it made? The move up luxury home buyer!
To get more details on the real estate market in Santa Clara County , San Mateo County, or Santa Cruz County, please visit http://popehandy.