Silicon Valley Pricing Snapshot

Today we’ll provide a few quick graphics to give you a Silicon Valley pricing snapshot on the 4 counties where we sell homes. These will be ranked by order of housing cost, from highest to lowest. After that, we’ll provide more resources from our other sites and blogs with a deeper dive on our main Silicon Valley real estate markets. We don’t cover all 9 of the San Francisco Bay Area counties, but here you’ll find 3 of them covered, and it’s a pretty good primer on the Bay Area housing market analysis.

Silicon Valley Pricing Snapshots

San Mateo County

San Mateo County is “The Peninsula”, the county just south of San Francisco and north of Santa Clara County and Santa Cruz County. About a quarter of Silicon Valley is in this area, generally.

 

San Mateo pricing snapshot

 

For three of these counties, we have a newsletter with info by city.

 

San Mateo County stats by city

 

Santa Clara County

Santa Clara County, our home base, is the second priciest area in this region and is the heart of Silicon Valley:

 

Santa Clara County pricing snapshot

 

And the city by city market stats:

 

SCC Stats by City for houses

 

 

We also do monthly market updates on communities within the Santa Clara County and more on our other blogs. Check out some of those market reports through the link.

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What does it cost to buy a 4 bedroom, 2 bath home in the West Valley areas of Silicon Valley?

It can be challenging for people moving to Silicon Valley to get a sense of pricing for home buying. So to compare “apples to apples,” let’s take a hypothetical case of a 4 bedroom, 2 bath home of approximately 2,000 SF house (appx 185 square meters) and see how the cost looks in one area versus another.

Last week I compared several areas using the formula: single family homes of 1,800 – 2,200 SF, 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, on lot sizes of 6,000 SF – 10,000 SF that have sold within the last 120 days. I sometimes will adjust this criteria slightly, usually the days, depending on the market activity. The prices listed are the average from sales in this criteria, so areas with a higher volume of sales will have more stable averages than those with less sales to analyze. DOM means “Days on Market”, the number of days a home was listed as available before pending.

Please note that this is a rough sketch of home prices based on averages taken across large, diverse residential communities. There are many factors that will affect market value beyond these boundaries.

Now, on to the charts.

The Cost To Buy A 4 Bedroom 2 Bath Home In…

I have arranged this chart in descending order by Price per Square Foot. Most of my charts are organized either by Price per Square Foot or by Sales Price, and you can see certain markets shift positions compared to past charts, moving up or down the order depending on what’s hot.

Occasionally one of these markets will have few to no sales within the timeframe, so those will be left in place from where they were when we last checked, but will show “n/a” in place of any pricing or statistics – usually I try to avoid this and will increase the timeframe of my search! Once you’ve reviewed the most recent data, scroll down farther to compare today’s market against past years.

Please use the list below as a way to get your bearings on nearby areas in the South Bay (southern part of the San Francisco Bay Area). This is not an exhaustive list – it’s just most of the areas closest to Highway 85 or the West Valley Freeway. You can study various cities, downs, and districts within the region at my stats site, popehandy.rereport.com. (Free and you do not have to register unless you want email updates.)

Want to do a deep dive on any of these areas? Please visit my Valley of Heart’s Delight Blog to learn about them.

 

2022-11-3 Homes 120D 4 bed 2 bath West Valley

 

There have been a number of changes to the order since the last time we checked in December 2020 – that time I did arrange it by sales price, however, so some of these changes are due to the sorting system difference. Saratoga jumped to the top of the list with it’s sole sale. Sunnyvale and Cambrian also climbed the ladder, even taking into account the sorting difference.

Most, but not all, areas averaged higher prices compared to last year. The West Valley “typical” home is selling approximately 7% above where they were last June. In areas like Saratoga with few sales it’s normal to see broad fluctuations in the charts for this community, so these may move around without suggesting any major changes in the market.

What we see across the entire chart is sky high spring pricing and extremely low days on market – about 2-3 weeks in most areas. While there are the occasional slow sales the majority are selling quickly, although not at the breakneck speeds of last year.

Cost to Buy in West Valley Varies Widely: What’s the Difference?

This chart shows average sales in West Valley communities above $3M and under $1.5M. Why such a big difference? In most cases, the most expensive and desirable places have either the best schools or shortest commute location or both. Communities like Palo Alto and Los Altos, which are consistently high, tend to have both. Had I ranked these for school scores, you’d find that Cambrian would be fairly high up as it is a good “bang for the buck” location – though not a super short commute for folks who work in Mountain View (though not so bad for people working in Cupertino). None of these is especially close to North San Jose (Cisco).

Also, it should be noted that one of the main drivers of home values is school districts. In the San Jose / Silicon Valley area, the school district boundaries do NOT follow the city or town boundaries. Los Gatos, for example, has 3 different elementary school districts, with varying scores which impact home values. So too with Saratoga, Campbell, Sunnyvale, and many other areas – San Jose especially!

All this to say that the figures above are only ROUGH GUIDES. When you break it down to micro-markets, the picture changes more. But as a starter guide, I think you’ll find the above info helpful to give you a general idea of how far your money can go in home buying for areas in Santa Clara County from Palo Alto to Blossom Valley.

Palo Alto is a gorgeous, exciting area with all kinds of wonderful features – beautiful neighborhoods, lower crime, great schools, short commute. It is usually the most expensive area on this list. But unless you found a successful startup company or inherit a couple of million bucks, it can be hard to buy a single family home there. Many people would like to live in the shadow of Stanford University, but the budget just won’t allow it!

Now let’s have a look at that June 2021 chart I’ve been referencing. Although overall it was an extremely active market in the West Valley, low inventory meant few sales in most areas!

 

Comparing West Valley House Prices 2021-06-28

 

Now let’s have a look at that some older charts.

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Waterfront homes in Silicon Valley: are there any concerns?

Beach view from Sunny Cove in Santa Cruz, CASometimes people relocating to Silicon Valley tell me that they’d like to move to a waterfront home, something with a view of the Pacific Ocean or the San Francisco Bay. Most of Silicon Valley is inland, though, separated from the ocean by the coastal mountains.

Ocean View Homes

For those truly set on having a view of the Pacific, home can be found in the Santa Cruz area with lovely ocean and Monterey Bay views. The compromise will likely be a long, winding commute over Highway 17’s mountain pass.

Similarly, ocean lovers may settle close to Half Moon Bay or Pescadero, but will have to slog over the coastal hills on Hwy 35 each day to get to the Peninsula. (Some lucky souls may find employment in Scotts Valley or along the coast, but most of the jobs are not in these places.) If faraway ocean view will work, a home in the Santa Cruz Mountains may be the ideal fit.

Silicon Valley Waterfront Homes

If you want to live along the waterfront within Silicon Valley and not these neighoring communities, there really are not a lot of neighborhoods from which to choose.  Most water-view homes involve the San Francisco Bay.  There are a few rivers, creeks, ponds (mostly man-made or percolation), lakes, and reservoirs to be found as well, but enjoying lovely water views up close is not the easiest criteria to fill and each come with their own concerns. Waterfront bay views often come down to Foster City and Redwood Shores, which we’ll discuss next. (more…)

Silicon Valley retirement

Seniors making plans - Silicon Valley retirement - moving to Silicon Valley to be with loved ones in the Golden YearsSilicon Valley retirement can be challenging for those already living in the San Francisco Bay Area, but it’s even more challenging for those hoping to spend their Golden Years here if they are coming from a less expensive area. Today I want to give some info on:

  1. what does it cost to buy a home here (typical retirement size home)
  2. what are typical HOA dues
  3. what are typical property taxes
  4. what are some of the housing options that retirees or seniors have when relocating to Silicon Valley?

Silicon Valley retirement: what a modest home costs to buy here

The average sale price of a condominium in Santa Clara County is over $1 million (and it’s even more in San Mateo County), and that includes the range from most pricey to most affordable (and often most remote) locations. In most of the Unites States, a million dollars will get you a high end house on a comfortable lot. Houses are averaging around $2 million, so that is out of the question for the majority of retirees who move here from out of the area.

If a family member wants to come here to retire, most likely he or she will want to pay cash for a home so that there is no mortgage payment in retirement. If the budget is $1 million or less, that’s likely to mean purchasing a condo or perhaps a townhouse. In Santa Clara County, here’s where the money would go furthest:

 

Santa Clara County real estate market stats by city - Condos and townhomes

A 2 bedroom, 2 bath unit…

Silicon Valley retirement costs will be vastly different between Palo Alto and Gilroy.  San Jose will generally be more affordable than most of the rest of Santa Clara County except for the “South County” areas of Morgan Hill, San Martin, and Gilroy. San Jose is home to about a million people, and it has more and less expensive areas, of course.

The average sale price of a 2 bedroom, 2 bath condominium in San Jose in the last 30 days was $748,797. The average square footage was 1160 SF,
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The shock of Silicon Valley housing costs: how little you can buy on a huge income

Relocation Housing Costs: how little you can buy on a huge income in Silicon ValleyIf you’re relocating because you’ve just been hired as a high level executive at Apple, Google, Microsoft or any other high tech or biotech firm in Silicon Valley, you may be coming to the San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley from an enormous home (5,000+ square feet) on an enormous lot (1 acre +). You are a raging success. You are highly regarded. You are on the top of your game. Your house “back home” displays your accomplishments. What about your Silicon Valley Home?

Housing Costs & Relocation

Set Your Expectations

You’ve heard that prices are bad here, but how much worse could they really be? Surely you could downsize a bit to a 3,000 to 3,500 square foot house on a half acre with a 20 minute commute, right? And you’d still have great schools for “resale value,” right? You are prepared to give up the full basement, the pool and tennis court and the 4 car garage. That is enough of an adjustment, isn’t it?

No, I’m sorry to say, it isn’t.

That house you are leaving behind in the suburbs of New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Chicago, Denver, Miami, Seattle, San Diego, or wherever you’re coming from is a super high end luxury home. It’s probably worth $1,500,000 to $2,500,000. But guess what? Here, in a nice area, that’s a 2,000 SF house on a 10,000 lot in a good area that’s a tear down. And in traffic, it could be a +40 minute commute.

Want an acre in an area with really good public schools at all levels? Think $4 million plus. And that doesn’t mean that the house will be turn-key. You will very likely have to remodel or personalize so that you are happy with it, as most of our houses were built between the 1960s and 1980s. (Here a 25 year old home is considered relatively young.)

Why make the sacrifice to live in Silicon Valley?

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Absorption Rate

One of the simplest ways of assessing the real estate market is to check the absorption rate, often called the months of inventory.

In short, it tells you the pace of home sales (beyond the simpler days on market). It informs you:

  • if you’re buying, whether or not you need to hurry or if you can take your time!
  • if you’re selling, this figure tells you what the odds are of your success in the next month. That could impact your selling strategy.

What is the months of inventory, or the absorption rate?

Water and a faucet - understanding the absorption rateThe absorption rate tells us how quickly the current inventory will be absorbed, or sold off, if sales continue at the same pace and no new inventory were to be added.

The absorption rate could be measured in days, weeks, months,  years, or decades – but the most common is the months of inventory. It’s really two data points in one: the available inventory and the number of sales in a particular period of time.

If this is hard to picture, consider a bathtub. If the tub is draining, how long will it take until the water is gone if the faucet is left off and if water continues to exit the tub at the same rate? That is the pace we are considering for homes for sale.

When homes are selling fast, in 30 days or less, often the data is described as days of inventory rather than weeks or months.

What is a fast absorption rate, and what does that mean for home sellers and buyers?

A balanced rate of sales suggests that neither home sellers or home buyers have a real advantage over the other. In the United States, anywhere from 4 – 6 months is considered balanced. Less than that is a seller’s market, and more than that is a buyer’s market. The lower the number, the hotter the market. 

In Silicon Valley, though, it’s almost never as high as 4 months – though it can and does happen sometimes.

For us, anything under 2 months is a hot market, and anything under 1 month is a super hot seller’s market.

Here’s a graph displaying the absorption rate for houses in Santa Clara County between January 2005 and now. The highest absorption rate was 14.2 in January 2008. It fell quickly from there with the next month at 12.4, then 10.1 in March, and eventually settling in at around 6-7 months of inventory for a period.

 

Absorption rate for Santa Clara County houses Jan 2005 - August 2022

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Natural Hazards in Silicon Valley

Natural hazards collage - natural hazard zones to considerWhat are the natural hazards in the San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley?

The main natural hazards to consider are:

  • earthquakes
  • floods
    • 100 or 500 year flood plains
    • floods from dam failure or levee failure (includes rising sea and bay water levels)
  • liquefaction zones (and compressible soils areas)
  • landslide zones
  • fire risk areas, such as the Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone
  • for those with basements (few homes), radon

There are zones associated with these potential risks and those areas are delineated by the state, county, and local jurisdictions. The state level earthquake faults are those which are considered active in relatively recent years. The county mapped fault zones may not have been active in over 10,000 years and the town or city labelled areas have been dormant for much longer than that.

Where to learn about natural hazards and natural hazard zones in Santa Clara or San Mateo Counties:

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Market Reports for Three Silicon Valley Counties

If you’re just moving into the area you may be wondering about the different housing markets for the greater Silicon Valley area. The counties are a perfect place to start!

Here are the real estate market reports for three major Silicon Valley counties (and where I’m most active in my work): Santa Clara County, San Mateo County, and Santa Cruz County. Generally, “Silicon Valley” is 95% within Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties, plus a little of Santa Cruz County and a small part of Alameda County. Alameda County uses a different MLS system, and I don’t usually sell there, so am not covering it in my reports.

Each section below includes first the data for single family homes and then condos and townhomes for each region.

If you’re ready to dive a little deeper, I also provide regular monthly market updates on some of the popular communities within Santa Clara County over at my Valley of Heart’s Delight blog. Scroll the most recent ones here.

Summer 2022: Three Silicon Valley Counties

Santa Clara County Real Estate Market Report for July 2022

First, Santa Clara County – home to San Jose, Cupertino, Sunnyvale, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Los Altos, Santa Clara, Campbell, Los Gatos, Saratoga, Monte Sereno, Milpitas, Morgan Hill, and a number of other cities and towns.

If you’re having trouble reading any of the charts on this page, click to open the full size image.

 

Santa Clara County single family home housing stats for July 2022

The market is clearly cooling with longer days on market, fewer sales, and a falling median sales price.

Here’s a look at the AVERAGE sale price for houses (single family homes) since 2016. Imagine that the “average” home has gained almost $1 million in value in just 6 years!

 

Santa Clara County SFH average sale price in July 2022

Spring of 2020 experienced a massive slowdown in market activity at the start of the pandemic, but it didn’t last long. Stifled spring activity put added pressure on the market when it opened again, and while fewer sellers chose to list there homes for sale demand shot up! Over the next two years, this buildup of demand with severely low available inventory drove prices sky high as we watched bidding wars and overbids snowballs out of control!

Inflation is finally being checked and we’re seeing that number come down a hair. Despite improving conditions, Santa Clara County remains in a seller’s market.

And the condominium and townhouse report for Santa Clara County

While it had only half the sales of the single family home market, the condo and townhouse market is also experiencing similar trends.

 

Santa Clara County townhome and condo market for July 2022

Keep reading for updates on the San Mateo and Santa Cruz county markets.

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Home prices by high school district

Here’s a quick look at home prices by high school district and further below, also by elementary school district. This is a great way to get a broad sense of where it’s more affordable or more costly to buy a home in Silicon Valley! The numbers were for sales in June 2022.

First, the median home prices by high school district for single family homes (houses and duet homes) in Santa Clara County. (Click on the images to view a larger version of each).

The SP/LP figure refers to the sale price to list price ratio. When it says 109%, that means the home sold on average 9% over list price. Med DOM is the median Days on Market.

PLEASE CLICK THE IMAGE BELOW TO VIEW LARGER VERSION

 

2022-07-13 SCC SFH stats by High School District Updated

 

Within each of these high school districts, there are more and less expensive areas. In the Los Gatos-Saratoga Joint Union HSD, for instance, some homes are in Los Gatos, some in Monte Sereno, and some in Saratoga – some have views and acreage, some are more modest. The figures are very broad.

Next, the same data but for condominiums and townhouses in Santa Clara County. These are far more affordable, but still very costly.

PLEASE CLICK THE IMAGE BELOW TO VIEW LARGER VERSION

 

 

2022-07-13 SCC condo Stats by High School District

 

The condominium and townhouse market has been strong also.

Home prices by Elementary School District

Single family homes (nearly all houses, some duet homes)

 

 

Condos and townhouse by elementary school district for June 2022:

 

2022-07-13 SCC con do Stats by Elementary School District

 

Need similar data for San Mateo County or Santa Cruz County? Please let me know and we can get it to you.

San Jose Districts and their Values

San Jose Districts Price Rankings Graphic July 2022 Landscape

What does it cost to buy a single family home in the city of San Jose?  There are many districts in this spread out city and their values vary by about 2 to 1 from the highest to lowest priced areas in this large, sprawling city with about 1,000,000 residents.

In this article we’ll take a look at the main, fairly well defined districts and discuss the cost of purchasing a house in each one. After each small description, there’s a link to a post on my popehandy.com website for that area.

You can also find relevant information on my Valley of Heart’s Delight blog, SanJoseRealEstateLosGatosHomes.com – just click on the “Neighborhoods” link.

Lastly, if you’d like to see a map of where these parts of SJ are located, please click on this link to find this article with a helpful map: San Jose is big and sprawling: where are the districts?

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